Faith and the Ballot Box: A Shifting Landscape
With Election Day less than a week away, data from early voting is rolling in daily – but actual results won’t be available until Tuesday night and beyond.
Yet a new poll, published earlier this week, provides some insight on how a person’s faith may well impact how they vote – and how that correlation has been changing in recent years.
McLaughlin & Associates, a national survey research and strategic services company, finds that while “religious voters” are still more likely to vote for Republican candidates, fewer of them are inclined to do so in 2026 than were in the 2024 presidential election.
“Faith remains a defining force in American politics, and voters who identify with organized religion continue to represent a massive and politically influential share of the electorate,” reports John and Jim McLaughlin, co-owners of the polling firm.
But in their latest report, the McLaughlin brothers note the significant contrast of voter sentiment in 2026 with exit polling from 2024.
“Trump won Protestants and other Christians by 27 points and Catholics by 20 points,” they write. “Today, congressional Republicans lead Protestants by just 8 points and Catholics by only 2.”
Evangelical Christians favor Republican candidates by 19 points – 56% to 37%. Catholic voters still favor the GOP, but by a narrow margin – 48% to 46%.
The McLaughlin survey is raising eyebrows for its finding that Jewish voters in 2026 favor Republicans by a wide margin – 64% to 33%. That stands as an outlier when compared to a recent Jewish Voters Resource Center survey that reported a 67%-26% Democrat advantage.
“Given the relatively small size of this subgroup in a national survey, that finding warrants caution,” acknowledged the McLaughlins. “But it is a trend Republicans should be watching closely.”
The McLaughlin team noted that secular voters and Muslims strongly favor Democrat candidates.
In the recently released data, those who identified as secular, atheist, agnostic or religiously unaffiliated favored Democrats 51% to 43%. Muslims leaned Democrat by a 63% to 37% margin.
The polling firm sounds an alarm for Republicans by noting that at the same time the religious advantage in the party is narrowing, more and more Americans are identifying as being nonreligious. Recent data found that 28% of adults claim no religious identity at all – up from 16% in 2007.
“That is a profound demographic and cultural shift,” McLaughlin writes. “The trend is especially pronounced among younger Americans, college-educated voters, urban residents, and liberals.”
The McLaughlin team goes on to note that the Republican Party shouldn’t take Christian voter support for granted. In a release announcing its findings, the team states:
“The country may be becoming more secular, but religious Americans remain a formidable electoral force.”
Focus on the Family is a nonpartisan organization committed to advocating and advancing social policy that best aligns and conforms with God’s sacred Word. We do not endorse candidates or parties but instead urge Christians to cast their vote in accordance with their deeply held convictions.
We’ve likewise highlighted the significance of Christian voters as a voting bloc – and urged those in positions of influence on both sides of the aisle to address and take those concerns seriously and respectfully.
When casting their votes, Christians are called to put God’s perspective above political personalities and party loyalty.
“Do not sit out or check your faith at the ballot box,” urged Lakepointe Church pastor Josh Howerton. “Do not vote your feelings, tribe or party. Vote the Word.”
